Wednesday, May 31, 2017

The blossom is blighted, the leaf is withered

"Beggar Boy," Master of the Blue Jeans (1680-1700)
http://www.wga.hu/frames-e.html?/html/m/master/bluejean/index.html


Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness. Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery. The blossom is blighted, the leaf is withered, the god of day goes down upon the dreary scene, and—and in short you are for ever floored. As I am!

Charles Dickens (1812-1870), David Copperfield, Chapter 12. Online: https://www.gutenberg.org/files/766/766-h/766-h.htm


Let's think about the word context.

Context: The part or parts of something written or printed, as of
Scripture, which precede or follow a text or quoted sentence, or are
so intimately associated with it as to throw light upon its meaning.

Webster's Unabridged Dictionary, Release Date: August 22, 2009 [EBook #29765] Produced by Graham Lawrence. The Project Gutenberg EBook of Webster's Unabridged Dictionary, by Various

Facts are crucial. But context is what makes facts make actual sense. If I said "That ship can carry 5,000 containers," I have stated something completely factual. But without context you're left struggling. Is 5,000 a lot? Is it weirdly small? If you don't have context, you just don't know.1

In the political realm one item you see frequently are headlines blaring "State has $500 million budget shortfall!" or the like. Which is factual. But without context, you have no earthly idea if this is big or small or what.

So let's get some context. Your friend and mine, Wikipedia (source of all wisdom) has a very nice table of US state budgets.2

StateBudget (billions $)FY
Alabama28.52014
Alaska9.52016
Arizona32.62016
Arkansas37.52015
California2472016-17
Colorado26.42015-16
Connecticut19.82016
Delaware4.72016
Florida77.12014-15
Georgia20.82015
Hawaii12.92016
Idaho6.92016
Illinois87.42015
Indiana15.42016
Iowa8.22015
Kansas15.42015
Kentucky662014-16
Louisiana29.12015
Maine8.12014-15
Maryland40.42015
Massachusetts36.52015
Michigan53.22015
Minnesota71.32014-15
Mississippi6.12015
Missouri272015
Montana10.92014-15
Nebraska9.72014-15
Nevada92014-15
New Hampshire5.42015
New Jersey32.52015
New Mexico152015
New York1422015-16
North Carolina41.22014-15
North Dakota6.92013-15
Ohio31.72015
Oklahoma7.22015
Oregon62.72013-15
Pennsylvania292014-15
Rhode Island8.82015
South Carolina23.62014-15
South Dakota4.32015
Tennessee32.62014-15
Texas99.72015
Utah13.52015
Vermont3.62015
Virginia472015
Washington83.42013-15
West Virginia12.22015
Wisconsin70.42013-15
Wyoming9.32015-16


So now we have some facts. Let's look at a few recent headlines. Let's start with an unusual story, one that actually provides context:


So a 4% shortfall is "enormous" in Pennsylvania. Got it. And now let's look at some more typical context-free news stories.

Arkansas:

Kansas:

Kentucky:

Ohio:


Oregon;

I'm not going to devote time to finding every shortfall story that's been published in the last year or two. Fortunately, I don't have to. The website Multistate (https://www.multistate.us/) recently published one of their periodic lists of state budget deficits. It's not complete, and for a number of states there aren't any figures (they know there's a deficit, they just don't know how much yet). But I think these constitute a reasonable sample.

StateFYBudget (billions $)DEFICIT 2017Proportion
Alabama201428.50.10.35%
Alaska20169.5????
Arizona201632.6ndnd
Arkansas201537.5ndnd
California2016-17247ndnd
Colorado2015-1626.40.1190.45%
Connecticut201619.81.57.58%
Delaware20164.70.357.45%
Florida2014-1577.1ndnd
Georgia201520.8ndnd
Hawaii201612.9ndnd
Idaho20166.9ndnd
Illinois201587.4????
Indiana201615.40.3782.45%
Iowa20158.20.1321.61%
Kansas201515.40.3492.27%
Kentucky2014-1666ndnd
Louisiana201529.10.62.06%
Maine2014-158.1ndnd
Maryland201540.40.2250.56%
Massachusetts201536.50.2950.81%
Michigan201553.2ndnd
Minnesota2014-1571.3ndnd
Mississippi20156.10.1953.20%
Missouri2015270.31.11%
Montana2014-1510.9????
Nebraska2014-159.71.212.37%
Nevada2014-159ndnd
New Hampshire20155.4ndnd
New Jersey201532.5ndnd
New Mexico2015150.4583.05%
New York2015-161422.11.48%
North Carolina2014-1541.2ndnd
North Dakota2013-156.90.314.49%
Ohio201531.7ndnd
Oklahoma20157.21.318.06%
Oregon2013-1562.71.72.71%
Pennsylvania2014-15290.62.07%
Rhode Island20158.80.1121.27%
South Carolina2014-1523.6ndnd
South Dakota20154.3????
Tennessee2014-1532.6ndnd
Texas201599.7????
Utah201513.5ndnd
Vermont20153.60.7520.83%
Virginia2015470.8611.83%
Washington2013-1583.4????
West Virginia201512.20.1651.35%
Wisconsin2013-1570.40.6930.98%
Wyoming2015-169.30.1561.68%

And that's what I call "context." Oregon has a $1.7 billion deficit -- but that's less than 3% of their budget. Oklahoma has a $1.3 billion deficit -- and that's a whopping 18%. New York has the largest deficit of all, $2.1 billion -- but that's less than 1.5%. Wyoming's deficit is only $156 million (just 1/14th New York's), but that constitutes 1.68% of its budget (significantly more than New York's).

I've gotten tired of a lot of the media recently. Telling "The Truth" without explaining "The Truth" isn't truth. It may not quite be a lie, but it's in the ballpark.

Notes

1 If you care, modern container ships can carry more than 19,000 20-foot container equivalents (TEU); as of 2017 the largest container ship in the world is the Madrid Maersk, with a capacity of 20,568 twenty-foot container equivalents. So 5,000 is respectable, but not (by modern standards) impressive.

2 Some of these are a bit out of date, and some are two year budgets, but they're the best I can find, and rather than spend hours searching for more up-to-date data, I'm just going to go with what's easily available.


References

Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._state_budgets
Multistate: https://www.multistate.us/

Arkansas: https://www.arktimes.com/ArkansasBlog/archives/2017/04/28/governor-announces-70-million-budget-cut-to-meet-tax-revenue-shortfall
Kansas: http://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article143237354.html
Kansas: http://www.gctelegram.com/news/state/state-s-new-tax-projections-trim-budget-shortfall-to-million/article_95562c19-ae13-532b-9052-7bf44f3c5fab.html
Kentucky: http://www.wkdzradio.com/State-Could-See-Budget-Shortfall/23069883
Ohio: http://www.cleveland.com/opinion/index.ssf/2017/04/ohio_gov_john_kasich_may_be_at.html
Oregon: http://www.kgw.com/news/verify-oregons-state-budget-deficit/433190916
Pennsylvania: http://www.philly.com/philly/news/pennsylvania/20170502_ap_828cb8bcf688465daff842b873b8b880.html
Virginia: http://www.richmondregister.com/news/officials-predicting-budget-shortfall/article_be03b8cc-2f8c-11e7-901f-63e189bfe3c0.html








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Sunday, May 28, 2017

All on the line

A Border Tower, by Samuel Bough (1822-1878)
Source: http://www.wga.hu/index1.html


When she loves me I know she's all mine
When my baby loves me she lays it all on the line.

George Strait, "She Lays It All On The Line," from the album Easy Come, Easy Go (1993). Written by Aaron Barker and Dean Dillon.


This is just a brief update (plus a discovery of a neat website I wanted to share).

On February 22, 2017 I posted on (among other things) the subject of US towns named "state line" or "stateline" (http://osborn.asenseofwander.com/2017/02/theres-strangeness-in-air-you-feel-too.html). I found just one dozen.

Brace yourself. There Is Another.1

Actually there are several more. Seven more, to be exact.

I found an interesting (and kind of enigmatic) website. It's called Geotargit (http://us.geotargit.com/index.php). It' seems to be a front-end for various geographic databases. If I sound uncertain, that's because I am. The sitemap is empty, and while there is a contact link, it's a form and doesn't display an email address.

You can link from Geotargit to Google Flights (you can also connect directly: https://www.google.com/flights/), you can search for hotels, and they have some neat lists of places named after food or after people.

But I think one part of Geotargit is really interesting: you can search for a list of all the cities of the world by name. I'm not certain what databases they're searching, but the results are impressive

Back in February, using grit and determination, I found 12 "Statelines" or "State Lines." Geotargit, in microseconds, found 13 "State Lines." And then three more "Statelines."

That's right. It beat me. I admit it freely. And I'm not resentful AT ALL.

Here are the 12 I found:
  1. Stateline, CA (near Lake Tahoe) [38.958333, -119.943889] 
  2. State Line, ID (on the Washington border) [47.705, -117.038056]
  3. State Line, IN (on the Illinois border) [39.436944, -87.529444]
  4. State Line City, IN (also on the Illinois border) [40.196667, -87.527222]
  5. State Line, IN (on the Michigan border) [41.758611, -86.250833]
  6. State Line, KY (on the Tennessee border) [36.510833, -89.120278]
  7. State Line, MS (on the Alabama border) [31.437778, -88.476111]
  8. Stateline, NV (on the California border) [38.970556, -119.945833]
  9. State Line, PA (on the Maryland border) [39.725, -78.7675]
  10. State Line, PA (also on the Maryland border) [39.7225,-77.724167]
  11. State Line, PA (on the New York border) [42.248737, -79.767510]
  12. State Line, SC (on the North Carolina border] [35.176667, -81.8]
This is Geotargit's list (sites not on my list are in bold):
  1. State Line AL - 31°00'03.0"N 85°24'14.0"W
  2. State Line AR - 33°03'05.0"N 93°32'20.0"W
  3. Stateline CA - 38°57'30.0"N 119°56'34.0"W2
  4. State Line IN - 40°11'50.0"N 87°31'37.0"W
  5. State Line LA - 30°58'50.0"N 89°57'01.0"W
  6. State Line MA - 42°20'52.0"N 73°24'35.0"W
  7. State Line MS - 31°26'10.0"N 88°28'28.0"W
  8. State Line NH - 42°43'05.0"N 72°05'02.0"W
  9. Stateline NV - 38°57'45.0"N 119°56'20.0"W
  10. State Line NY - 42°14'40.0"N 79°45'32.0"W
  11. State Line PA - 39°43'29.0"N 77°43'29.0"W
  12. State Line SC - 35°10'36.0"N 81°48'01.0"W
  13. State Line TN - 36°35'25.0"N 84°26'20.0"W
  14. State Line TX - 32°43'36.0"N 103°03'52.0"W
  15. State Line WI - 42°29'40.0"N 87°49'15.0"W

So, combining my poor (but honest) efforts with Geotargit's, this is my final list (Good Lord, I hope it's my final list):
  1. State Line, AL [ 31.00083333 -85.40388889]
  2. State Line, AR [33.05138889 -93.53888889]
  3. Stateline, CA [38.958333, -119.943889]2
  4. State Line, ID [47.705, -117.038056]
  5. State Line, IN [39.436944, -87.529444]
  6. State Line City, IN [40.196667, -87.527222]
  7. State Line, IN [41.758611, -86.250833]
  8. State Line, KY [36.510833, -89.120278]
  9. State Line, LA [30.98055556 -89.95027778]
  10. State Line, MA [42.34777778 -73.40972222]
  11. State Line, MS [31.437778, -88.476111]
  12. State Line, NH [42.71805556 -72.08388889]
  13. Stateline, NV [38.970556, -119.945833]
  14. State Line, PA [39.725, -78.7675]
  15. State Line, PA [39.7225,-77.724167]
  16. State Line, PA [42.248737, -79.767510]
  17. State Line, SC [35.176667, -81.8]
  18. State Line, TX [32.72666667 -103.06444444]
  19. State Line, WI [42.49444444 -87.82083333]
And that, with any kind of luck, is that!

Notes

1 This is a reference to Star Wars Episode VI: The Empire Strikes Back. If you didn't recognize this, you lose serious nerd points.

2 Abandoned.




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